Electricity Transformation - part 5

Compiled List of New Renewable Energy Sources

In the report “The Long-Term Energy Efficiency Potential”, ACEEE projects three scenarios. Reference Case is business as usual, Advanced Scenario includes penetration of know advanced technologies, and Phenix Scenario includes greater infrastructure improvement and aggressive displacement of existing building stock.

Under Advanced Scenario, residential and commercial demand will reduce by 49% and 36% respectively. Under Phenix Scenario, 61% and 48% respectively. I used 3 billion MWh, 75% of total consumption, half residential and half commercial as base, applied % of reduction to each sector. Reduction appears to be lower, which might be because I have not included other possible reductions from industrial sector.

If we follow Advanced Scenario, we can eliminate coal, natural gas and reduce nuclear. If we follow Phenix scenario, we can eliminate coal, natural gas and nuclear, plus some surplus.

                                    Million MWh                      Advanced Scenario        Phenix Scenario

                                           2012                           2030-2035                       2030-2035

Coal                                      1,517        37%                        0                                      0

Natural Gas                          1,231        30%                        0                                      0

Nuclear                                    769        19%                    769                                      0

Hydropower                            276        7%                      276                                  276

Petroleum                                  23        1%                         0                                      0

Other Gases                              11        < 1%                      0                                      0

Other Renewable                     219        5%                   1191                               2628

       Biomass                              58        1.42%                 203                                     4

       Geothermal                         17        0.41%                   68                                 284

       Solar                                     4         0.11%                 120                                 390

       Wind                                  140        3.46%                 800                               1950

                               

Total Generated                      4046                                  2236                               2904

Demand Reduction                        0                                  1276                                1636

Total required                          4046                                  2770                               2410

                               

Difference                                                                           -534                                494

                                                                  need to come from nuclear?

                                                                                                                               surplus?

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